Beyond climate envelopes: effects of weather on regional population trends in butterflies

Although the effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly evident by the shifts in species ranges across taxonomical groups, the underlying mechanisms affecting individual species are still poorly understood. The power of climate envelopes to predict future ranges has been seriously questioned in recent studies. Amongst others, an improved understanding of the effects of current weather on population trends is required. We analysed the relation between butterfly abundance and the weather experienced during the life cycle for successive years using data collected within the framework of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme for 40 species over a 15-year period and corresponding climate data. Both average and extreme temperature and precipitation events were identified, and multiple regression was applied to explain annual changes in population indices. Significant weather effects were obtained for 39 species, with the most frequent effects associated with temperature. However, positive density-dependence suggested climatic independent trends in at least 12 species. Validation of the short-term predictions revealed a good potential for climate-based predictions of population trends in 20 species. Nevertheless, data from the warm and dry year of 2003 indicate that negative effects of climatic extremes are generally underestimated for habitat specialists in drought-susceptible habitats, whereas generalists remain unaffected. Further climatic warming is expected to influence the trends of 13 species, leading to an improvement for nine species, but a continued decline in the majority of species. Expectations from climate envelope models overestimate the positive effects of climate change in northwestern Europe. Our results underline the challenge to include population trends in predicting range shifts in response to climate change

Essential omega‐3 fatty acids are depleted in sea ice and pelagic algae of the Central Arctic Ocean

Microalgae are the main source of the omega‐3 fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), essential for the healthy development of most marine and terrestrial fauna including humans. Inverse correlations of algal EPA and DHA proportions (% of total fatty acids) with temperature have led to suggestions of a warming‐induced decline in the global production of these biomolecules and an enhanced importance of high latitude organisms for their provision. The cold Arctic Ocean is a potential hotspot of EPA and DHA production, but consequences of global warming are unknown. Here, we combine a full‐seasonal EPA and DHA dataset from the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO), with results from 13 previous field studies and 32 cultured algal strains to examine five potential climate change effects; ice algae loss, community shifts, increase in light, nutrients, and temperature. The algal EPA and DHA proportions were lower in the ice‐covered CAO than in warmer peripheral shelf seas, which indicates that the paradigm of an inverse correlation of EPA and DHA proportions with temperature may not hold in the Arctic. We found no systematic differences in the summed EPA and DHA proportions of sea ice versus pelagic algae, and in diatoms versus non‐diatoms. Overall, the algal EPA and DHA proportions varied up to four‐fold seasonally and 10‐fold regionally, pointing to strong light and nutrient limitations in the CAO. Where these limitations ease in a warming Arctic, EPA and DHA proportions are likely to increase alongside increasing primary production, with nutritional benefits for a non‐ice‐associated food web

Risk factors for the onset and persistence of neck pain in undergraduate students: 1-year prospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although neck pain is common in young adulthood, studies on predictive factors for its onset and persistence are scarce. It is therefore important to identify possible risk factors among young adults so as to prevent the development of neck pain later in life.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A prospective study was carried out in healthy undergraduate students. At baseline, a self-administered questionnaire and standardized physical examination were used to collect data on biopsychosocial factors. At 3, 6, 9, and 12 months thereafter, follow-up data were collected on the incidence of neck pain. Those who reported neck pain on ≥ 2 consecutive follow-ups were categorized as having persistent neck pain. Two regression models were built to analyze risk factors for the onset and persistence of neck pain.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among the recruited sample of 684 students, 46% reported the onset of neck pain between baseline and 1-year follow-up, of whom 33% reported persistent neck pain. The onset of neck pain was associated with computer screen position not being level with the eyes and mouse position being self-rated as suitable. Factors that predicted persistence of neck pain were position of the keyboard being too high, use of computer for entertainment < 70% of total computer usage time, and students being in the second year of their studies.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Neck pain is quite common among undergraduate students. This study found very few proposed risk factors that predicted onset and persistence of neck pain. The future health of undergraduate students deserves consideration. However, there is still much uncertainty about factors leading to neck pain and more research is needed on this topic.</p

Grand challenges in entomology: Priorities for action in the coming decades

Entomology is key to understanding terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems at a time of unprecedented anthropogenic environmental change and offers substantial untapped potential to benefit humanity in a variety of ways, from improving agricultural practices to managing vector-borne diseases and inspiring technological advances. We identified high priority challenges for entomology using an inclusive, open, and democratic four-stage prioritisation approach, conducted among the membership and affiliates (hereafter ‘members’) of the UK-based Royal Entomological Society (RES). A list of 710 challenges was gathered from 189 RES members. Thematic analysis was used to group suggestions, followed by an online vote to determine initial priorities, which were subsequently ranked during an online workshop involving 37 participants. The outcome was a set of 61 priority challenges within four groupings of related themes: (i) ‘Fundamental Research’ (themes: Taxonomy, ‘Blue Skies’ [defined as research ideas without immediate practical application], Methods and Techniques); (ii) ‘Anthropogenic Impacts and Conservation’ (themes: Anthropogenic Impacts, Conservation Options); (iii) ‘Uses, Ecosystem Services and Disservices’ (themes: Ecosystem Benefits, Technology and Resources [use of insects as a resource, or as inspiration], Pests); (iv) ‘Collaboration, Engagement and Training’ (themes: Knowledge Access, Training and Collaboration, Societal Engagement). Priority challenges encompass research questions, funding objectives, new technologies, and priorities for outreach and engagement. Examples include training taxonomists, establishing a global network of insect monitoring sites, understanding the extent of insect declines, exploring roles of cultivated insects in food supply chains, and connecting professional with amateur entomologists. Responses to different challenges could be led by amateur and professional entomologists, at all career stages. Overall, the challenges provide a diverse array of options to inspire and initiate entomological activities and reveal the potential of entomology to contribute to addressing global challenges related to human health and well-being, and environmental change

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified